The Domestic Nonferrous Metals Industry Is Expected To Enter The Upward Channel Of Demand + Currency Resonance.

Shanghai Securities News China Securities Network News (Huo Xingyu, Reporter Liu Xue) CICC issued an article on November 12 saying that in 2024, the domestic nonferrous metals industry is expected to enter an upward channel of "demand + currency" resonance.

CICC said that from the demand side, the turning point of domestic stabilizing growth policies has arrived. Although the current improvement in economic data is still relatively mild, starting from the fourth quarter of 2023, as the effects of stabilizing growth policies gradually emerge, the domestic economy is expected to rebound significantly, and the demand for replenishment under low inventories can also be expected to be activated, thus driving the nonferrous metals industry Demand reaches an upward turning point.

In terms of currency, in the current high interest rate environment, the market's sensitivity to interest rate cut transactions continues to increase. As the negative impact of high interest rates on the U.S. economy gradually emerges, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations may be moderately revised, and interest rate cut transactions are expected to start. At the same time, it also creates space for domestic monetary policy easing and economic recovery.

CICC believes that gold will benefit from the systematic increase in global central banks and private holdings brought about by interest rate cuts and de-dollarization, as well as safe-haven demand brought about by rising risks of geopolitical conflicts. Gold is expected to perform stably in 2024, with both volume and price rising.

It is difficult for base metals to perform outstandingly at the end of interest rate hikes and the early stages of interest rate cuts. However, with the realization of the above-mentioned "demand currency" resonance situation, it is expected to show strong elasticity.

Aluminum benefits from supply rigidity and steady demand growth, with strong certainty and stability in price increases. At the same time, the aluminum processing industry has benefited from emerging demands such as automobile lightweighting, photovoltaics, and energy storage, as well as the recovery of the traditional economy, and the value of configuration has begun to emerge.

Although copper benefits from stable growth and interest rate cuts, considering the high short-term supply pressure, copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in 2024. However, considering that copper supply pressure is expected to slow down starting in 2025, copper price expectations after the end of 2024 remain optimistic.

Benefiting from the emerging demand for semiconductors, photovoltaics and the steady growth of the traditional economy, tin is expected to enter an upward channel, but in the short term it still faces high Wa State inventories and supply uncertainty.

Antimony benefits from high demand for photovoltaic glass and the continuation of traditional demand. Antimony prices are expected to rise further amid continued tight supply and low inventories.

CICC believes that energy metals may face uneven hot and cold situations in 2024. As demand grows steadily, the growth rate of rare earth supply declines. It is expected that prices will stabilize and rebound, and rare earth orders will increase. Magnetic materials will pick up. Natural uranium has benefited from supply disruptions and rising nuclear power demand, and is expected to continue its upward trend in 2024.

Lithium, cobalt, and nickel are still in a state of heavy volume and price decline. But at present, there is not much room for further sharp declines, but it still needs to bottom out and wait for supply to become clear and demand to accelerate.